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There might be loads of new televisions in 2021, however for the first time in a long time they will not be launched in particular person at CES. Instead of filling large cubicles in Las Vegas with jumbo screens to wow a whole lot of 1000’s of attendees, TV makers like Samsung, LG and TCL will host digital occasions on-line — similar to Apple, Google and others in the course of the pandemic.
That means folks like me might be masking the most recent in TV tech from the consolation of our properties and flats (for essentially the most half). At CNET we’ll nonetheless host dwell discussions and occasions over video chat and you’ll count on to learn loads of articles about new TVs in the course of the first couple weeks in January, however the wow issue and sizzle will not be the identical. I’ll do my greatest however let’s face it: My basement is not fairly large enough to carry Samsung’s 292-inch MicroLED, LG’s OLED wave or the CNET stage.
Because CES is “all-digital” this 12 months, I additionally do not count on there to be fairly as a lot to speak about. Some TV makers will use the shortage of a bodily present to tout massive merchandise early, just like the 110-inch Samsung MicroLED TV. Some will make new TV bulletins later within the 12 months, nearer to their spring launch dates, moderately than compete for protection house at CES. And loopy ideas like clear OLED and customized in-flight screens from LG Display do not translate as properly to Zoom shows.
There will nonetheless be loads of TV information at CES 2021, nevertheless. Buzzwords like 8K, Mini-LED and MicroLED will nab their share of headlines, TV makers will promise higher picture high quality, larger screens and add-ons of doubtful usefulness and the present will present the primary glimpse of greatest TVs of 2021. Here’s a preview of this distinctive iteration of CES that includes insights from Stephen Baker, vice chairman of Industry Analysis at NPD Group, a market analysis agency.
Lots of Samsung, TCL and LG, less Vizio and Hisense
I’ll start with the basics. Here are the top five US TV brands by units sold and dollars (the number of TVs and the amount of money spent on TVs). Like all the data in this article, it’s from NPD and applies to 2020 through Cyber Monday week, ending Dec. 5.
2020 market share by brand
Units | Dollars | |
---|---|---|
Samsung | 25% | 38% |
TCL | 15% | 10% |
Vizio | 14% | 10% |
LG | 10% | 17% |
Hisense | 9% | 6% |
Three of the five biggest brands will likely show off new televisions at CES, but two will definitely sit it out. Vizio confirmed to CNET that it won’t announce any new TVs at CES 2021 — despite a massive presence in previous years, including 2020. Hisense also typically shows off new TVs at CES, but this year a company representative told me new models for the US market would instead be revealed “closer to their availability dates” in 2021.
Will 2021 finally be the year of 8K TV? Probably not.
2020 was a massive year for TV sales in general — they grew an incredible 20% year-over-year — and Samsung in particular, which sold nearly half of all the TVs over $1,000 and actually increased its already dominant market share by another 3%. Many of Samsung’s CES announcements last year centered on 8K, but sales of 8K TVs will likely remain tiny in 2021.
“No change in the prognosis for 8K,” Baker told me. “It remains a product without much demand or differentiation right now.” He doesn’t expect 8K to exceed 1% of sales volume until 2022. I still expect Samsung, LG, Sony and TCL to announce 8K TVs at CES (TCL, for record, has promised an 8K TV in the US each of the last two years and failed to deliver) but I don’t expect many people to buy them.
Read more: 8K TV: What you need to know
2021 will be the year of the huge TV (just like 2020 was)
“TVs keep getting bigger,” says Baker. “The most remarkable trends this year are how quickly consumers saw value in bigger screens and how much they recognized the value in newer, more modern technology to support their entertainment needs.” These two trends go hand in hand: As people replace aging TVs they often get newer ones that are bigger.
Here’s how much sales of larger TVs have grown in the last couple of years.
Sales growth by screen size
2020 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|
65-inch TVs | 27% | 39% |
70-inch and larger TVs | 82% | 58% |
CES often has gigantic, one-off TVs that either cost a fortune or aren’t real products, but this kind of growth in truly gigantic screen sizes is real and likely to increase as long as big TVs keep getting cheaper.
One interesting counter note from Baker, however: “We expected a sharp drop off in smaller screen TVs, instead those sizes have grown alongside larger screens.” I don’t think that will translate into more small TV announcements at CES — I’d be surprised to see a smaller-than-48-inch OLED, for example — but you never know.
Read more: How big a TV to buy? As big as you can
Will OLED have any new tricks up its sleeve?
One of the biggest stories of CES 2020 was Vizio joining Sony and LG in selling an OLED-based TV. Another was the crazy roll-up OLED from LG finally going on sale. For 2021, I won’t be surprised if LG tried to differentiate its OLED lineup even more, either with a new panel technology (OLED panels have remained basically unchanged, albeit excellent, for years) or some design trick — maybe transparent OLED for consumers instead of just retail.
Speaking of new panels, here’s also the possibility that we hear more about QD Display, a quantum dot/OLED hybrid in which Samsung Display invested heavily last year. Initial production is scheduled to start in 2021.
More quick tidbits: gaming, smart TV and soundbars
- Now that Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 are available I hope more affordable TVs get gaming-friendly HDMI 2.1 extras like 4K/120Hz and Variable Refresh Rate — but I don’t expect to hear much about cheaper TVs at CES.
- Streaming had a huge year in 2020 but I don’t expect much innovation in smart TV systems, which have largely leveled off. “Streaming has become a checklist item,” says Baker, referring to its easy availability on numerous platforms. He says well over 90% of all TVs sold in 2020 were smart TVs.
- Over-the-air TV could make more headlines in 2021 as additional TVs get NextGen TV tuners, which allow access to 4K antenna broadcasts and more. Last year only a handful of such TVs were introduced. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see separate NextGen TV set-top boxes announced.
- Home entertainment isn’t just about TVs: soundbars saw the same 20% increase in growth, TV mounts saw a 31% jump and routers grew by 50% — all products at or near the center of the home entertainment space. At CES, I expect the trend of TV-branded soundbars to grow (Samsung soundbars that work best with Samsung TVs, for example) and TV makers to continue making wall-mounting and other innovative TV-as-furniture solutions easier.
- Overall, Baker expects TV sales to decline in 2021 compared to 2020, but that’s not a surprise given how much of a blockbuster year TVs had this year. “However it is important to point out that we expect 2021 and 2022 sales volumes to be above the 2017-2019 trend as consumers focus more on their entertainment choices and continue to update, upgrade and upsize their TVs.”
In the TV industry as in so many other areas of life, 2020 was unique. The CTA has already announced that CES 2022 will take place in Las Vegas again. Meanwhile, for this year’s virtual, all-digital show my most accurate prediction is the same as ever: CNET will have the latest developments from CES starting in early January. Stay tuned.
(This story has not been edited by Newslivenation workers and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)