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The “SDG Push” scenario will lift additional 146 million out of extreme poverty: UN (Representational)
United Nations:
An additional 207 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to the severe long-term impact of the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the total number of the world’s extremely poor to more than a billion, a new study from the UN Development Programme (UNDP) has found.
The study assesses the impact of different COVID-19 recovery scenarios on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), evaluating the multidimensional effects of the pandemic over the next decade.
The study is part of a long-standing partnership between the UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.
“Severe long-term results of the COVID-19 pandemic might push a further 207 million individuals into excessive poverty on high of the present pandemic trajectory, bringing the full to over 1 billion by 2030,” noted the study.
The ”Baseline COVID” scenario, based on current mortality rates and the most recent growth projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), would result in 44 million more people living in extreme poverty by 2030 compared to the development trajectory the world was on before the pandemic.
Under a ”High Damage” scenario, where the recovery is protracted, COVID-19 is likely to push an additional 207 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, and increase the female poverty headcount by an additional 102 million compared to that baseline, says the report.
The ”High Damage” scenario anticipates that 80 per cent of the COVID-induced economic crisis would persist in 10 years” time due to loss in productivity, preventing a full recovery to the growth trajectory seen before the pandemic.
However, the study also finds that a focused set of SDG investments over the next decade in social protection/welfare programmes, governance, digitalisation, and a green economy could not only prevent the rise of extreme poverty, but actually exceed the development trajectory the world was on before the pandemic.
“This formidable, but possible “SDG Push” scenario would lift an additional 146 million people out of extreme poverty, narrow the gender poverty gap, and reduce the female poverty headcount by 74 million, even taking into account the current impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,” UNDP mentioned.
UNDP administrator Achim Steiner mentioned as this new poverty analysis highlights, the COVID-19 pandemic is a tipping level, and the alternatives leaders take now might take the world in very totally different instructions.
“We have an opportunity to invest in a decade of action that not only helps people to recover from COVID-19, but that re-sets the development path of people and planet towards a more fair, resilient and green future,” he mentioned.
The concerted SDG interventions recommended by the research mix behavioural modifications via nudges for each governments and residents, reminiscent of improved effectiveness and effectivity in governance and modifications in consumption patterns of meals, vitality and water.
The proposed interventions additionally give attention to world collaboration for local weather motion, extra investments in COVID-19 restoration, and the necessity for improved broadband entry and expertise innovation, UNDP mentioned.
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