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NEW DELHI—India’s ascendant Hindu nationalist motion will notch a historic victory on Wednesday when Prime Minister Narendra Modi lays a ceremonial cornerstone with nice fanfare to start development of a bitterly contested Hindu temple within the metropolis of Ayodhya.

But for Mr. Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party, political flag bearers for the Hindu nationalist trigger, the win comes at a notably difficult second for triumphalism.

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