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People with journey hyperlinks to China, Iran, and Italy accounted for practically two-thirds of preliminary Covid-19 cases exterior mainland China within the pre-pandemic interval between December 31 and March 10, a brand new research within the medical journal Lancet says.
The research is the primary of its variety to use publicly out there world case knowledge to describe journey publicity and case cluster traits amongst early Covid-19 cases in numerous international locations, revealing the place the primary cases of Covid-19 exterior China might have originated primarily based on case journey histories. The research additionally discovered 4 giant clusters and outbreaks triggered in numerous international locations to be linked with “transmission in faith-based settings”.
The novel coronavirus was first detected within the central Chinese metropolis of Wuhan in Hubei province late final yr earlier than spreading inside China after which triggering the worst world pandemic in current histories. Scientists have been researching how the virus quickly unfold exterior China March onwards when the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared it a pandemic.
Also learn: China logs one other 105 Covid-19 cases in new surge, silent about virus hyperlink in Xinjiang
The new research revealed on Wednesday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal compiled publicly out there info from the pre-pandemic interval till March 10, the day earlier than when the WHO declared it a pandemic.
“Of the first confirmed Covid-19 case in each affected country outside mainland China, almost two-thirds had travel links to Italy, China, or Iran. Study suggests 1 in 4 of these first cases originated in Italy, and 1 in 5 in China,” the researchers discovered.
The research mentioned that many small clusters of family transmission had been reported amongst early cases however clusters in occupational and group settings tended to be bigger—supporting the position of bodily distancing to gradual the unfold of Covid-19. The researchers went by means of out there knowledge from 99 international locations together with India.
As a lot as three-quarters or 75 international locations exterior mainland reported the primary Covid-19 case in individuals who had “…recently travelled to an affected country—with almost two-thirds of these first cases linked to travel to Italy (27%), China (22%), or Iran (11%),” in accordance to the brand new analysis. Incidentally, in January, the primary two confirmed cases of Covid-19 – then solely often called an unidentified pressure of coronavirus – had been reported in South Korea and Thailand, each with journey historical past to Wuhan in central China.
In India, the primary three Covid-19 cases had been recognized in three college students who had returned from Wuhan within the first evacuation flight launched by New Delhi.
“Our findings suggest that travel from just a few countries with substantial SARS-CoV-2 transmission may have seeded additional outbreaks around the world before the characterisation of Covid-19 as a pandemic on March 11, 2020,” says Dr Fatimah Dawood from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC), who co-led the analysis.
“In this study, researchers examined publicly available online reports from national ministries of health and other government agency websites, social media feeds, and press releases on a daily basis to identify newly confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported between December 31, 2019, and March 10, 2020 (ie, during the pre-pandemic period, corresponding to weeks 1-11 of the outbreak).”
During the primary 11 weeks of the Covid-19 outbreak, 32,459 Covid-19 cases had been recognized from 99 international locations and areas exterior mainland China.
“Travel to Italy was linked with half (3/6 cases) of the first-reported cases in Africa, and over a third (36%, 16/45) in Europe and the Americas (38%, 5/13). Travel to mainland China accounted for 83% (10/12) of the first reported cases in the Western Pacific and over half (57%, 4/7) in Southeast Asia.”
Seven or 44% of the primary reported cases within the Eastern Mediterranean area had a historical past of journey to Iran. Analysing the info, the researchers discovered that family transmission was reported in three-quarters (76/101) of clusters, with a mean of two.6 cases in every cluster.
“By contrast, the 11 clusters related to community gatherings (ie, tour groups, faith-based groups, and dinner parties; average 14.2 cases per cluster), and the 14 clusters reported in non-health-care occupational settings (average 4.3 cases per cluster), tended to be larger—supporting a possible role for physical distancing in slowing the spread of Covid-19,” researchers mentioned.
One of the authors steered the significance of coordinating with spiritual teams in stopping cluster infections.
“Four large clusters in our analysis, and large outbreaks reported elsewhere, have been linked with the transmission in faith-based settings, highlighting the need to partner with faith-based organisations when designing and implementing community mitigation efforts,” mentioned co-author Dr Philip Ricks from the US CDC.
Limitations of the research embrace the truth that the primary confirmed case in every nation won’t have been the primary true case of an infection in some international locations, since early case detection efforts diverse considerably.
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