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In televised remarks on Monday, Lukashenko mentioned that “recent events showed us that we need to stay close to our big brother and cooperate more closely on all matters, including economic ones.”
In the assembly, Putin reiterated that Russia has agreed to present Belarus a mortgage within the area of $1.5 billion. The two presidents additionally mentioned the “Slavic Brotherhood” joint navy drills that kicked off at present in Belarus, with Putin saying Russian items will return residence after the coaching.
Prior to the assembly, analysts had anticipated that Monday would end in some type of settlement that retains Lukashenko in place, at the very least for now. However, it is nonetheless unclear whether or not that settlement will finally lead to a transition of energy, brokered by Russia, or to a extra full-throated help for Lukashenko.
And by merely sticking to his earlier commitments on Monday, Putin has shed little mild on his long-term plan for Belarus.
“For Russia, the key concerns remain as they were at the outset of this crisis: Not losing Belarus to the West, not allowing an unstable or unpredictable situation in a neighboring country, and not allowing people power to force a change in leadership,” mentioned Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.
He added that Putin has choices to forestall this from taking place, together with “covert or overt support for Lukashenko, greater integration … or in the worst case, managing an orderly transition of power to someone less prickly for Moscow to deal with than Lukashenko.”
The pair’s relationship has been prickly over the previous twenty years for quite a lot of causes. In the 2000s, Lukashenko tried to distance himself from Russia in an try to ditch his strongman picture. They have additionally argued over gasoline costs, with Lukashenko repeatedly complaining in regards to the excessive costs provided by Russia lately. Putin has maintained his authorities will not be going to supply any reductions earlier than Belarus agrees for a deeper union integration with Russia, a undertaking unpopular amongst Belarusians.
However, Lukashenko is a recognized amount to Russia. And Putin traditionally is not any fan of regime change in nations residing below dictatorship.
“Moscow not only prefers to keep its friends in power in autocratic regimes, but also more broadly prefers stability and predictability to sudden changes in geopolitics,” mentioned Giles. He provides that this could possibly be down to two of Putin’s most acute issues: “The fantasy that this is all part of an ongoing Western campaign to overthrow regimes and its eventual target is Moscow; and the reality that when leaders whom the West dislikes are overthrown, as with Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, they have a tendency to be lynched.”
For Lukashenko, the inherent weak point of his place implies that he might have to change ceding larger management of Belarus to Putin in change for Russian help that retains him in energy.
“Lukashenko is going to Russia while he has some political space,” mentioned Franak Viacorka, non-resident fellow on the Atlantic Council and journalist primarily based in Belarus. “He has removed the opposition’s institutional instruments that could remove him from power, at least for the time being. So, even though he is visiting Putin knowing how weak he is, he is also able to demonstrate that he is still ultimately in control of the security forces and government.”
All of which implies that each leaders might have reached a short lived settlement by way of gritted tooth, as Putin concedes that Lukashenko is his least-worst choice for now, whereas Lukashenko does what it takes to stay in command of his nation.
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