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The newest blow to the metropolis’s standing got here Tuesday, when US President Donald Trump adopted by means of on a risk to revoke the United States’ special relationship with Hong Kong, which has in the previous exempted the metropolis from sure tariffs, amongst different privileges.
“Hong Kong will now be treated the same as mainland China,” Trump said in a speech at the White House.
The Trump administration first recommended it might change its view of Hong Kong a number of weeks in the past, when China started making ready to impose a sweeping national security law on the metropolis. Critics of the regulation say it undercuts political and authorized freedoms which have existed since Britain handed the former colony to China in 1997.
Since the regulation took effect on July 1, considerations over Hong Kong amongst overseas companies and political leaders have solely grown. Some tech firms have pulled back from the market, whereas firms have expressed concern about the new regulation’s broad attain and ambiguity. The New York Times on Tuesday additionally announced that it might transfer a few of its employees primarily based in Hong Kong to Seoul as it started to “make contingency plans.”

Alongside the choice to finish the particular buying and selling relationship Tuesday, Trump additionally signed a separate piece of laws that might impose sanctions on companies and people which can be seen as serving to China limit Hong Kong’s autonomy.

Without its privilege as a particular financial system below US regulation, “there won’t be big differences between Hong Kong and other big Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai,” stated Simon Lee, senior lecturer of worldwide enterprise at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “Foreign companies will think whether they need to maintain their existing scale of operations in Hong Kong.”

New York Times moving some staff out of Hong Kong as security law brings media chill
Following Trump’s announcement, China on Wednesday pledged to retaliate with sanctions of its personal on US officers and entities. It didn’t elaborate. On Tuesday, it said it would punish Lockheed Martin (LMT) for promoting arms to Taiwan.

In a press release, the Chinese Foreign Ministry known as on Washington to “stop interfering in any way in China’s internal affairs, including Hong Kong affairs.” It additionally urged the Trump administration to chorus from implementing its new regulation concerning Hong Kong.

The influence on commerce

Since 1992, Hong Kong’s particular standing has allowed the items passing by means of its borders to bear completely different controls than these in the mainland. During the US-China commerce battle, for instance, it allowed Hong Kong to keep away from the tariffs that Washington imposed on Chinese items.

The new govt order may put an finish to that, as it goals to “revoke license exceptions” for exports to Hong Kong.

Hong Kong does not do an enormous quantity of direct commerce with the United States, in accordance to Iris Pang, chief economist of Greater China at ING. In 2018, America imported nearly $17 billion in items and companies from Hong Kong, whereas exporting $50 billion — a trivial quantity in contrast to the practically $740 billion in items and companies traded that 12 months between the United States and China.

And the majority of products exported from Hong Kong — about 99% — are re-exports, that means that they’re items passing by means of the territory from one other nation, Pang defined.

Containers sit stacked at the Kwai Tsing Container Terminal in Hong Kong in February.

That implies that if these items are from mainland China, they’re already topic to any tariff that applies to Chinese items. So “in terms of tariffs, there should be no difference whether there is a removal of the special status,” Pang wrote in a May analysis report.

What’s extra regarding is the general deteriorating relationship between the United States and China, she informed CNN Business.

For instance, Trump stated in an interview with CBS News on Tuesday that he was not fascinated about discussing a possible part two commerce cope with China in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The two international locations agreed to a phase one deal in January, which concerned an settlement by China to purchase tons of of billions of {dollars} price of merchandise from the United States.

“I’m not interested right now in talking to China,” Trump stated. “They hit us with the plague, so right now I’m not interested in talking to China about another deal.”

The prospect of a “second wave” in the commerce battle can be way more damaging to Hong Kong’s financial system than the new US edict on the metropolis, stated Pang.

A blow to enterprise confidence

Trade is just one a part of the story.

In current months, tensions have been effervescent up between China and the West, turning Hong Kong right into a political battleground and elevating much more questions on the metropolis’s future.

The metropolis had already been hit onerous by the commerce battle, as nicely as long-running anti-government protests, which pushed the economy into recession. Then the coronavirus pandemic sharpened the blow, simply months earlier than the nationwide safety regulation was imposed.
Foreign companies have expressed concern about the new regulation. More than 68% of companies that responded to a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong that revealed earlier this week stated they have been “more concerned” than a month in the past.

One respondent wrote that the laws was “extremely broad and could be used for anything at all.” Authorities in Hong Kong, although, insist the regulation is wanted to restore stability after months of unrest.

Last week, tech firms started pulling again on or re-examining their operations there. Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Zoom (ZM) each said they’d quickly cease honoring authorities information requests about their Hong Kong customers, whereas TikTok — which is owned by Chinese firm ByteDance however has important US operations — quit the market fully.

“Hong Kong is just a city in the gap between the political conflict between the two large superpowers,” George Leung, CEO of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, informed CNN Business. “We are just an international business city here doing business between the East and West, and should not be suffering from the threat of sanctions on anything affecting the Hong Kong wellbeing.”

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More severe penalties additionally seem to have been mentioned.

Fears that the United States may punish China by undermining the Hong Kong greenback’s peg to the US greenback resurfaced final week after Bloomberg reported that Washington was contemplating choices to weaken the foreign money. Citing nameless sources, the information outlet stated some options — together with limiting the capacity of Hong Kong banks to purchase US {dollars} — had been raised amongst political advisers to the US State Department.
The information outlet later reported that Trump determined in opposition to the thought, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority — the metropolis’s de facto central financial institution — has made clear that it has sufficient in reserve to help the peg.
But the idea itself is not a new one, and it takes on renewed significance as Hong Kong’s standing as a secure haven for world enterprise is debated.
Businesses 'more concerned' now about Hong Kong security law

While the Trump administration has not pursued the “nuclear option” of focusing on the Hong Kong greenback, the metropolis’s worldwide relevance “would immediately be called into question” if that have been to happen, stated Brock Silvers, chief funding officer for Hong Kong-based Adamas Asset Management.

Silvers added, although, that Hong Kong may emerge from the geopolitical firestorm with some advantages. The metropolis, in any case, in current weeks has become increasingly attractive to Chinese companies that worry their enterprise prospects in the United States could also be in jeopardy.

“The role of Hong Kong was already evolving in light of its newly redefined relationship with China,” Silvers stated. “Although Hong Kong’s international role could diminish over time if concerned firms relocate to Singapore and elsewhere, Hong Kong may find new relevance as a center for Chinese finance.”

— Eric Cheung, Kevin Liptak, Kristie Lu Stout, Jason Hoffman and Sugam Pokharel contributed to this report.

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