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By Jake Horton
BBC News
The US presidential election takes place on 3 November, and the UK will likely be wanting to strike a post-Brexit commerce cope with whoever wins.
But how would possibly the election outcome have an effect on us in the UK?
1. Waiting for a commerce deal
The UK at the moment trades with the US on phrases that had been negotiated with the EU. But that can change on 1 January when the UK stops following EU commerce guidelines.
Both the US and the UK are negotiating a commerce deal, with the intention of creating it simpler and cheaper to purchase and promote items to one another.
Given that the new presidential time period would not begin till 20 January, a deal is unlikely to be agreed till after then.
And when a deal is agreed relies upon, in massive half, on the will of the subsequent president.
When it comes to UK export locations, the US is the UK’s second greatest market behind the EU.
A beneficial UK-US commerce deal would intention to decrease tariffs (taxes paid on imported items). This might assist hold costs down at house, and make it simpler to promote issues to the US.
President Donald Trump, who has referred to as himself “Mr Brexit”, says he desires a speedy commerce deal.
But if Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden wins, this might be a slower course of, as he would possibly prioritise repairing US-EU relations.
Mr Biden was vice-president to President Barack Obama, who earlier than the 2016 EU referendum stated that the UK could be at the “back of the queue” in any commerce cope with the US, if it voted to go away.
That stated, there is no assure of a fast commerce deal no matter who wins the election – the US Congress could have a say, and will stall the course of.
2. Those chlorinated chickens
The UK will likely be renegotiating the way it trades with the US in all areas – and this contains meals requirements.
Food imported to the UK at the moment has to meet requirements set by the EU, however this would possibly not be the case from 1 January – and new phrases could have to be agreed with the US.
In 2019, the Trump administration set out a few of its priorities in any UK commerce deal – and considered one of these was to enable US agricultural merchandise to be bought to the UK with fewer constraints.
Some worry the UK will enable meals imports from the US that do not adhere to present meals requirements.
The debate has centred round rooster washed with chlorine – one thing that is allowed in the US, however not in the UK.
The authorities insists it is dedicated to excessive requirements, however MPs have thus far rejected proposals for imported meals to meet present EU requirements.
This leaves the door open for chlorinated rooster and different farming practices that fall beneath present requirements to be on the desk in future commerce talks.
We’re unsure on Mr Biden’s place, however he apparently advised former deputy prime minister Sir Nick Clegg that the US would not signal something that rooster farmers in the US did not like.
3. The worth of medicine
Under the present UK system, specialists resolve how a lot the NHS pays for medication, however the US pharmaceutical business desires to have extra say over costs, and the Trump administration has additionally stated that this can be a precedence in negotiations.
Mr Biden’s place, once more, is much less clear.
UK negotiators have said that in any US commerce talks: “The NHS will not be on the table. The price the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table.”
4. What to do with the Irish border
There’s additionally one other vital political dimension to any cope with the US – the Irish border.
Last yr the UK and EU signed a deal, referred to as the withdrawal settlement, which paved the method for Brexit to occur. It included a plan to forestall checks alongside the Irish border from January 2021, which is when the new UK-EU relationship will begin.
But the subject has resurfaced after the UK authorities stated it needed to make adjustments to the beforehand agreed association.
Mr Biden – a person with Irish roots – has made his place clear, tweeting that any commerce cope with the UK should be contingent upon “preventing a return to a hard border” with Ireland and “respect” for the Good Friday Agreement.
He says he would not enable peace in Northern Ireland to develop into a “casualty of Brexit”.
This is comparable to the place taken by the Trump administration, which has stated it desires to “see the lack of a border maintained”.
The Irish foyer is highly effective in US politics, and it could appear both administration would push again towards any adjustments alongside the border.
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