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This is the first time Mexico’s President has left the nation since taking workplace in December of 2018. The proven fact that he is headed to the White House speaks volumes, each virtually and symbolically. Both leaders are searching for victories past their dropping battles with the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump stated final month that López Obrador was “a really great guy,” and López Obrador stated he was going to Washington, DC, “to thank Trump for his support and solidarity.” They nonetheless have lots to disagree over, however there additionally appears to be a variety of widespread floor — not the least of which might be their related governing types as two populists who’ve constructed political manufacturers on a cult of character.
Their assembly facilities on the USMCA, a deal that handed after months of inauspicious negotiations.
The timing of the assembly amid the rampant unfold of the coronavirus in each nations has questioned by critics. But for 2 males who’ve seen their approval scores constantly drop throughout the outbreak, the assembly presents a chance to discuss one thing else.
“Right now, neither is getting high marks for their handling of the health crisis, making the visit a welcome distraction,” stated Christopher Wilson, deputy director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute.
The USMCA’s implementation represents one among the greatest international coverage wins of the Trump administration — and arguably one among the solely main examples of the President creating new, lasting agreements with international nations relatively than tearing up current ones.
Trump will promote this deal as a win and a follow-through on a 2016 marketing campaign promise to rework earlier free commerce offers, whilst Democrats say the solely cause they voted to cross the USMCA is as a result of they overhauled the authentic framework throughout negotiations.
“López Obrador’s visit will allow [Trump] to showcase how he has bent Mexico to his will by reminding voters that this is a ‘very good deal’ for the US while signaling his achievements at strong-arming Mexico on immigration policies,” stated Gladys McCormick, an knowledgeable on US-Mexico affairs at Syracuse University.
Meanwhile, López Obrador has additionally staked a variety of political capital in the USMCA and certain needs to be sure the Trump administration is invested in ironing out any points that come up throughout its implementation.
Mexico’s financial system was sputtering even earlier than the pandemic hit. Now, with the IMF predicting a 10.5% GDP contraction in 2020 and his occasion going through crucial midterm elections subsequent summer time, shoring up Mexico’s most essential financial relationship might be prime of thoughts for López Obrador.
“Almost 85%of all [Mexican] exports go to the [United States], which is obviously a huge number,” stated Larry Rubin, president of the American Society of Mexico. “Mexico is highly dependent on trade with the United States.”
“Mexico will benefit more by sending very clear and positive messages that if investors want to come and invest in Mexico, their investment will be protected,” Rubin stated.
A calculated technique for AMLO
Critics of the Mexican President have urged him not to journey to the White House, saying it follows a development of AMLO wilting in the face of Trump’s financial bullying and racist rhetoric.
Consider that in 2019, when Trump expressed anger over the movement of Central American migrants touring to the US border via Mexico, he threatened tariffs on Mexican imports if Mexico did not crack down.
López Obrador shortly complied. He deployed Mexico’s National Guard, a newly created power supposedly devoted to preventing Mexico’s horrific ranges of violence, to the northern and southern borders, considerably slowing migrant flows.
Critics have stated that whereas Trump’s vaunted border wall hasn’t really been constructed or paid for by Mexico as Trump promised, AMLO’s National Guard deployment basically did simply that.
AMLO additionally signed onto the so-called Remain in Mexico coverage, below which the Trump administration forces asylum seekers to wait in Mexico whereas their paperwork is processed, exposing them to harmful situations in Mexican border cities the place ranges of violence are sky excessive.
AMLO has additionally largely avoided criticizing the provocative language generally utilized by Trump and his supporters when describing individuals crossing from Mexico into the United States.
“How do you stop these people?” Trump requested of immigrants at a May 2019 rally in Florida. When an viewers member shouted, “Shoot them!” Trump smiled and stated, “Only in the [Florida] Panhandle can you get away with a statement like that.” The trade continues to be referenced in Mexican political commentary at present.
AMLO agreed to step up his nation’s immigration enforcement only a few weeks later.
“We Mexican democrats will not forget Mr. López Obrador’s reverence to the man who has maligned us,” wrote Mexican historian Enrique Krauze this week in a New York Times op-ed.
But López Obrador’s strategy to the United States is a calculated one. Next to nothing ought to get in the manner of Mexico capitalizing on its relationship with the world’s largest financial energy. Some would possibly name it appeasement. Others name it sensible.
“If we have a good relationship with the US, we will avoid bad treatments, and we’ve accomplished this,” he stated in his day by day press convention on Monday. “My critics say, ‘How am I going to the US if they have offended the Mexicans?’I want to tell the people of my country that since we took office, there’s been a respectful relationship, not only to the Mexican government but also to the Mexicans.”
“Notwithstanding some of President Trump’s derogatory remarks about Mexico and Mexicans, President López Obrador is placing Mexican national interest first and conducting himself like a statesman,” stated Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, a senior affiliate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Whatever the technique, it has led to the US President taking a sort view of López Obrador, with Trump even tweeting in June of 2019, “Mexico is doing a far better job than the Democrats on the border. Thank you Mexico!”
Two sides of the identical coin?
And though the two presidents come from very completely different political backgrounds — Trump the right-wing former tv star, AMLO the decades-long politician, self-declared leftist and former mayor of Mexico City — consultants observe they’ve very related approaches to governing.
“Both presidents are populists and economic nationalists,” stated Wilson. “Both came to power on a message of empowering the disenchanted and disaffected. Both see institutions and bureaucracy as unnecessary checks on their power and obstacles in their direct relationship with voters.”
And the presidents have taken a remarkably related observe of their dealing with of the coronavirus pandemic.
Both presidents downplayed the preliminary risk. Trump promised again in February it could simply disappear whereas AMLO famously held up two amulets and stated, whereas smiling, that they’d “protect” him from the virus.
They additionally routinely ignore public well being consultants’ recommendation to socially distance and put on masks in public, and neither man is in favor of mass testing.
Most crucially, Trump and AMLO are each aggressively pushing for his or her economies to reopen. So maybe it is no shock that, of all the causes to meet, they’d discover time this week to tout a brand new financial deal.
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