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President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden have emerged from their presidential nominating conventions with every candidate believing he has a head of steam. Trump’s job approval scores and standing in polls are perilously low for an incumbent, however Biden and different Democrats vividly keep in mind 2016, when Trump made an against-all-odds October comeback and defeated Hillary Clinton.
Five key questions as the 2020 campaign strikes towards the fall house stretch:
WHAT WILL A COVID-19 CAMPAIGN LOOK LIKE?
Expect a flurry of journey and speeches as the candidates spend the next 9 weeks desperately making an attempt to maneuver the needle and win new votes towards the backdrop of a world pandemic.
Trump is ready to launch an aggressive journey schedule with a number of occasions every week, in keeping with advisers. After an area rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, early this summer season drew a paltry crowd, his campaign has settled on a brand new format in the age of the coronavirus: packing smaller crowds into open-air airport hangars. The campaign has additionally been handing out masks at its occasions and, on Friday, advised attendees they’d be necessary, per native laws. He’s additionally planning a collection of coverage speeches and is anticipated to proceed to make use of the powers of his workplace — together with signing government orders and issuing pardons — to assist his prospects.
Biden is planning to ramp up journey to battleground states after Labor Day after spending most of the spring and summer season at his house in Wilmington, Delaware, holding principally digital occasions, with solely occasional journey to tightly managed gatherings. Campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond mentioned the former vice chairman shall be lively however emphasised that Biden’s occasions nonetheless will comply with public well being pointers. That means no indoor, crowded rallies and many mask-wearing. Expect loads of roundtables, meet-and-greets and question-and-answer classes. If there are bigger gatherings, the drive-in watch occasion outdoors Biden’s nomination acceptance tackle could possibly be the blueprint.
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WHOSE VERSION OF THE OTHER CONVINCES MORE VOTERS?
Trump will proceed making an attempt to win again suburban, feminine and older voters, and win over independents and individuals who didn’t vote 4 years in the past, by portray the election as a stark alternative between regulation and order and anarchy and between a radical, socialist takeover and financial prosperity. Never thoughts that Biden has spent many years in the political institution and California Sen. Kamala Harris, his operating mate, is a former prosecutor. Trump will use each scare tactic he can muster.
If his 2016 race is any indication, anticipate Trump to launch a scorched-earth technique if he feels he’s shedding come October. Realizing his solely shot then was to drive up Clinton’s unfavorable scores to match his personal, Trump’s campaign used each trick they might consider, together with inviting girls who accused Bill Clinton of rape and undesirable sexual advances to look at one in every of the debates.
Attacks on Biden’s household? Accusations he’s drugged up or senile? There isn’t any line Trump gained’t cross to win.
Biden will proceed to hammer Trump as a basic risk to democracy and attempt to make the case that the president is a egocentric, corrupt determine incapable of empathy. Biden will promote himself as a gradual, skilled hand with a progressive coverage agenda on points together with local weather motion and felony justice — simply not as progressive as Trump tries to make him when he blasts Biden as the entrance man for a “radical” takeover.
Biden’s campaign believes that he’s sufficient of a identified amount that voters past Trump’s base merely gained’t purchase the president’s descriptions of the former vice chairman. If they’re proper, they see Trump’s base-driven campaign as one which opens up a large coalition — from progressives who aren’t in love with Biden to anti-Trump moderates Republicans — for the Democratic ticket.
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CORONAVIRUS AND AN OCTOBER SURPRISE?
Biden has outlined his White House bid from the begin as an ethical and competency case towards Trump. The COVID-19 pandemic has solely intensified the method. Biden’s campaign believes there’s no cowl for Trump with the coronavirus loss of life toll surpassing 180,000 and climbing, instances nearing the 6 million mark, unemployment hovering in double digits and Congress at an deadlock on additional financial help.
In remarks Thursday earlier than Trump’s nomination acceptance speech, Harris summarized the campaign’s pondering: “Trump’s incompetence is nothing new,” she mentioned, “but in January of this year, it became deadly.” She mentioned the incumbent “failed at the most basic and important job of a president … to protect us.”
Trump is hoping for a late improvement that could possibly be a campaign game-changer: The launch of a vaccine that will mark the starting of the finish of the pandemic on his watch, earlier than Americans vote. His administration has been doing every thing it could possibly to speed up the course of, together with hyping new therapeutics, even when it’s not clear they work. “We’ll produce a vaccine before the end of the year, or maybe even sooner,” he mentioned in his conference keynote. It’s unclear, nonetheless, whether or not science can ship on his timetable.
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HOW IMPORTANT ARE THE DEBATES?
They’re essential.
The conventions largely succeeded in fulfilling each campaigns’ aims, so the debates — scheduled for Sept. 29, Oct. 15 and Oct. 22 — shall be the most high-profile alternatives for the candidates to focus on contrasts, animate core supporters and cajole the small however crucial slice of persuadable voters.
Biden and his group say they relish the concept of confronting Trump head to head. “The debates will give the V.P. the chance to call Trump on all of his B.S.,” Richmond mentioned.
It additionally shall be one other probability for the 77-year-old Democrat to work to dismantle Trump’s framing that Biden is simply too previous for the job. Richmond mentioned that narrative may backfire on Trump, himself a 74-year-old who repeatedly mangles syntax and provides meandering solutions.
Some in Trump’s camp appear to agree. After months of making an attempt to forged Biden as feeble and mentally diminished, they’re now speaking up Biden’s skills as a method to attempt to decrease expectations on Trump’s aspect.
“Joe Biden is really good at debates,” Trump campaign adviser Jason Miller has been saying, portraying Biden as way more expert than Hillary Clinton.
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HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO HAVE A WINNER?
It won’t be on election night time.
The campaigns and nationwide events are engaged in lawsuits throughout many states, arguing over guidelines for absentee voting amid the pandemic, and that litigation may proceed if outcomes are shut on Nov. 3.
Republicans and Democrats alike are pushing their supporters to ask for absentee mail ballots, whilst Trump continues to query the integrity of the election earlier than a single vote is forged.
Don’t anticipate that panorama to vary between now and Election Day — and even for a number of weeks afterward. Trump has refused to say whether or not he’ll settle for the outcomes if he loses, and Clinton has warned Biden to not concede if the election is remotely shut.
One factor is obvious, although: The Constitution units Inauguration Day as Jan. 20, and barring catastrophic developments, both Trump or Biden will take the oath of workplace that day.
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