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In cricketing parlance, batting within the fourth innings of a check match is commonly seen as a batsman’s nightmare. The deteriorating situations of the pitch due to the roughs, cracks and bowlers’ footmarks catalyse each inconsistent bounce and sharp spin. Successfully negotiating such situations is undisputedly probably the most credible check of the talents, mettle, psychological energy and character of a batsmen. It doesn’t come as a shock that within the historical past of the sport, whereas a disproportionately massive variety of centuries have been scored within the first innings, only a few have been scored within the second. It is exactly on such a racing, bouncy and spinning pitch of Bihar politics that Nitish Kumar has taken guard in his fourth innings because the chief minister of the state. The extent to which he is ready to bat/negotiate his method by means of will a lot rely upon how diligently he reads the pitch in addition to the sport plans of the 5 key actors/gamers in Bihar politics.
First, the BJP. For Nitish Kumar, the BJP is an ally/associate on the non-striker’s finish. There are causes nonetheless, to imagine that the associate may wish to run him out. For the BJP, conceding the chief ministerial place to Nitish Kumar seems extra of a compulsion than a selection on account of not having a frontrunner on the state degree who instructions respect and acceptance throughout caste divides as Kumar does. To be honest to the BJP, having performed the second fiddle for too lengthy to Nitish, it might naturally wish to use this chance as a springboard to deepen and widen its assist base. In doing so, it should naturally try and make inroads within the EBC and ladies vote financial institution by making a broad-based coalition of castes weaved within the saffron thread and enveloped in developmental narratives. Nitish Kumar might have carved a distinct segment amongst girls voters and the EBC neighborhood however the BJP has already put the bait by elevating Tara Kishore Prasad and Renu Devi from the Vaishya and Nonia caste, a part of the OBC-EBC vote block respectively. Interestingly, each the highest slot appointees come from the Seemanchal and its adjoining areas.
Removing Sushil Modi, a stalwart in state politics, from the place of Deputy CM is a part of the technique. For lengthy, Modi has been perceived as a milder face, in sync with Nitish’s model of socialism and secularism. Both Nitish Kumar and Sushil Modi haven’t examined electoral waters themselves, preferring the legislative council route. The BJP assume tank would certainly wish to prop up an aggressive mobiliser in Bihar who might match each the Mandal and the Kamandal invoice. Running between the wickets with two deputies both methods will not be that simple for Nitish Kumar thus.
Second, the RJD. After being in political oblivion for the final 15 years, primarily due to its misrule within the 15 years previous 2005, the 2020 elections outcomes have given the occasion a contemporary lease of life. The dominating numbers it has within the Vidhan Sabha together with the hovering recognition of its chief Tejaswi Yadav implies that Nitish must be going through yorkers and bouncers bowled with ferocity and velocity. Tejaswi will probably be aiming on the cracks within the pitch for certain. The promise of 10 lakh jobs might have been a ballot plank for Tejaswi however that’s the deadliest bouncer Nitish Kumar must face, and whereas his political compulsions don’t enable him to duck it, the shortage of sources within the state won’t enable him to hook.
Third, the AIMIM. The AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaisi will, be bowling googlies that may check Nitish Kumar’s secular claims and credentials. The indicators are already manifest. All the 11 Muslim candidates fielded by the JDU ticket misplaced and for the primary time within the historical past of the state, Muslims should not represented within the ruling alliance.
Fourth, the HAM and VIP. Going into the elections, Kumar couldn’t hold HAM on his aspect totally on account of the latter’s overambitious calls for. However, given the criticality of the numbers that HAM and VIP have, they may hassle him from behind the stumps, striving to disturb his focus and a focus by always making irritating calls for a lot disproportionate to their bench energy.
Fifth, the Congress. The solely comforting feeling that Kumar might need might come from the Congress, which seems most susceptible to poaching from all quarters. Kumar will probably be in an advantageous place on condition that he formally holds the reins of energy. But then he might want to guard his personal occasion as effectively, which is equally inclined to such makes an attempt.
The days forward will see to what extent Nitish Kumar is ready to negotiate bounce and activate a pitch that’s solely more likely to deteriorate.
The author teaches Political Science at Hindu College, University of Delhi
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